Something has changed. As inflation pushes costs higher and consumers feel squeezed, McDonald’s is facing a test few legacy brands have to endure: can it remain affordable and relevant when value itself erodes?

The next few years may be a reckoning. Will McDonald’s hold its place as the people’s restaurant or will rising prices erode the very foundation it was built on?

McDonald’s story is rooted in accessibility and affordability. For decades, its core appeal was simple: quick meals for affordable prices, delivered with predictable taste and speed. That made it not just a fast-food chain but an institution for students, families, workers… Everyone. It became a symbol of “fast food done right,” especially for those budgeting carefully.

Over time, the global expansion of McDonald’s turned that value into a cultural constant. Wherever you landed, whether a small town in the Midwest or a big city halfway around the world, the Golden Arches promised a meal you could trust at a price you could afford.

That consistency built loyalty. It created trust. It created a baseline expectation that eating out didn’t have to mean overspending. Many people considered McDonald’s the default: simple, fast, and cheap.

In recent years, that promise has frayed. Rising costs across the supply chain: beef, labor, utilities, packaging. These costs have forced McDonald’s to increase menu prices. According to a recent analysis, a meal like a Quarter Pounder with cheese has more than doubled in price over the last decade, while other staple items have surged as well.

Between 2019 and 2024, McDonald’s average menu price rose around 40 percent, a jump the company says reflects steep increases in input costs rather than a strategy to gouge customers.

Still, for many of McDonald’s core customers, that increase matters more than cost-of-living adjustments. In 2025, data from the company revealed that traffic from lower-income households declined noticeably.

That decline isn’t just statistical. It signals a shift in what McDonald’s represents. What once was “cheap and easy” now feels expensive and optional. For a company whose identity has always hinged on value, that shift threatens everything.

As economists warn of a potential recession, and households brace for possible income stagnation, discretionary spending will be one of the first things to go. Restaurants, fast-food or otherwise, may see sharper pullbacks as consumers cut corners.

McDonald’s is especially vulnerable. Its core appeal is value. But when value becomes relative, the choice becomes harder to justify. Families may choose groceries, cheaper alternatives, or skip extra meals entirely. Compare that with pricier fast-casual or sit-down options that offer perceived “higher value” through ambiance or better ingredients. The gap could widen further.

Even though McDonald’s has reported positive same-store sales growth for 2025, that increase has been driven primarily by higher average check sizes rather than higher foot traffic.

That suggests the brand is leaning more heavily on bigger or more complex orders, instead of winning new visits, a subtle but significant shift that may not be sustainable in a downturn.

If a recession hits, McDonald’s must ask itself: can it reduce prices or promotions enough to keep bringing people through the door without sacrificing margins? And can it do this without diluting its brand image or quality?

McDonald’s isn’t unaware of the challenge. In 2025, the company re-introduced and doubled down on value-focused initiatives. It rolled out new Value Meals, invested in combo deals, and emphasized affordability in promotions targeted at cost-conscious consumers.

Executives have admitted that recent pricing pushed value perception dangerously close to breaking.

The return to cheaper, simpler combos, even as margins compress is intended to preserve what made McDonald’s essential in the first place.

If done well, this could be a real reinvention, not of the menu, but of McDonald’s identity. Instead of being a brand that simply followed rising input costs, McDonald’s might secure its relevance by re-committing to affordability, flexibility, and value perception.

In that sense, this could be a test of adaptability. The test isn’t whether McDonald’s can raise prices. It’s whether McDonald’s can lower them, at least in perception without breaking itself. The companies that last aren’t the ones who avoid disruption. They’re the ones who adjust better when disruption comes.

McDonald’s history was built on the idea that affordable meals were easily accessible was universal. It didn’t matter where you lived, what you earned, or what was on your calendar. The Golden Arches promised a simple, reliable meal that wouldn’t wreck your budget.

Today, inflation and economic uncertainty are pushing that promise to the edge. McDonald’s pricing pressure risks turning its greatest strength, value, into a liability.

Yet the story isn’t over. McDonald’s is trying to adapt. It is reminding its customers that it can still offer deals, affordability, and value perception even when input costs are high. That choice to pivot and protect value rather than chase margins could define whether McDonald’s remains the people’s chain or becomes a luxury-fugitive fast food relic.

For other founders and operators reading this, the lesson is clear: the value you promise to your customers is often your greatest asset. And when external conditions challenge that value, your instinct shouldn’t always be to raise prices sometimes it should be to fight to preserve value.

Long-term businesses survive by serving real needs, not chasing short-term gains. McDonald’s might be about to find out if value can survive inflation and if the world still considers it essential.

That’s a wrap for this week’s Built to Last. McDonald’s is more than a fast food chain. It’s a gauge of consumer sentiment, a mirror for economic stress, and a test case in what happens when value gets expensive and budgets get tight.

What do you think? is McDonald’s resilient enough to hold onto its legacy of affordability, or will it become a casualty of shifting economics? And who should we look at next week as we continue exploring companies built for longevity?

Hit reply, share your thoughts, and help shape the next edition of Built to Last. Thanks for reading and for believing that businesses meant to last are built with purpose, not just profit.

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